Banking on the Market

Share this post

Brief CPI Feb 2023 Update

www.ayeshatariq.com

Brief CPI Feb 2023 Update

Overall, not a bad CPI report

Ayesha Tariq
Mar 14, 2023
13
5
Share

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report just came out for the US today. The market seems to like the report somewhat and I can see why.

Here’s the overall CPI Scorecard

The only item that came in above consensus was Month on Month CPI Ex Food and Energy, or Core CPI as it is known.

A brief look under the surface:

Energy inflation was the biggest driver of the decrease.

Shelter is the only thing that came in slightly hot, with the month on month increase accelerating.

Used Cars came in lower than expected. I thought this number would be higher because the Manheim Used Car Index has been accelerating over the last few months. However, the CPI does lag the Index by about 2-3 months so the worst may not be over.

I don’t particularly like the numbers for food. While the rate of change has decreased, the change is still positive. This just means it will take much longer for inflation in this area to come down, as you can see from the last two columns.

Nevertheless, I'd say the report shows decent progress in reducing inflation. This may not however, mean that the Fed pauses rate increases. It may just mean that they continue hike at 0.25%.

Have great day!

Banking on the Market is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

13
5
Share
Previous
Next
5 Comments
Nick E.
Writes Nick’s Vital Few
Mar 14Liked by Ayesha Tariq

I really like the heat map table! 👍🏽

Expand full comment
Reply
1 reply by Ayesha Tariq
Liquidity Blocks
Writes Liquidity Blocks Model Book
Mar 15Liked by Ayesha Tariq

Hey Ayesha, thanks for the report. Could you explain why you though the Food numbers weren't good given Feb 2023 (.4) was lower than Jan 2023 (.5)?

Expand full comment
Reply
2 replies by Ayesha Tariq and others
3 more comments…
Top
New
Community

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Ayesha Tariq
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing